The Current Political Hellscape

Harold Combs
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So, we woke-up to this on easter

Since February 27th, we’ve been in Operation Epic Fury:

  • Oil prices have exploded. Gas prices are above $4 / gallon most places. Here in central texas, gas went from $2.499 to $3.47
  • Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is stopped. This stops petroleum, natural gas, and fertilizer used throughout the world (see previous bullet)
  • Iran broadened the war to UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia
  • There’s no exit / stop criteria
  • Our planes aren’t invulnerable
  • Iran is lobbing drones that cost $10k and we’re intercepting with missiles costing $10 Million.
  • Secretary of Defense War Pete Hegseth fired experienced generals and admirals
  • Trump’s approval rating at last report:
    • Approval rating < 40%
    • Disapproval Rating: 60%

I’m sure there are more

So What

At Amazon, when we list off facts like that, invariable the comment comes: “So What?” What do we make of this? What’s the point?

Two or three scenarios make sense to me

Scenario One: We Know What We’re Doing

The main idea is: (1) We have a reason for doing all this, (2) the public can’t know what that is, (3) trust me bro.

Supposing the US came by information that the Iranians were shortly obtaining a nuclear weapon, they’re doing what we refused to do with North Korea: Intervene. Everything here is to decapitate and disrupt Iran’s leadership with certain regime change and a bonus hope for outright revolution. Note: The revolution hasn’t/won’t happen.

Scenario Two: Israel Wags the Dog

Basically Scenario 1, but the “trust me bro” comes from Israel. We buy it hook line and sinker, but it’s basically Israel + the [Abraham Accords])https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords) nations letting the United States do the dirty work.

Secnario Three: Caught the Car You Chased

Sort of a “Iraq WMD” situation–we wanted to kill the Ayatollah, but beyond that we anticipated an immediate revolution based on protests over the past 12 months. In this scenario, there is no real strategic plan, just a set of “OPlans” (Operational Plans) that always exist within the Pentagon. We’re executing on those like automatons but they run out after 4-6 weeks. They’re the opening moves to a chessmatch, not the endgame.

Where does this leave us?

Hard to predict. At one end, there’s a nightmare scenario where Trump uses nuclear weapons on Iran to open Hormuz. On the other, there’s…negotiation? Iran is a nation-state and it’s not like another country can dictate their future. This isn’t Iraq, a set of lines on a map among Kurds, Christians, and Sunni Muslims. Iran/Persia is an ancient land with 90 million people.

I’d hope negotiation wins out, but given Hegseth’s moves, I doubt it.