And so it begins
As I write this, it’s 5pm on St. Patrick’s Day. I’m not wearing green. I’m sitting at home in our spare bedroom, with a 24" monitor ahead of me, and Amazon Basics® Keyboard instead of my beloved CODE Keyboard, and the world aflame.
I agree with this tweet:
Super handy to all be walking around with little rectangles full of terrible news in our pockets all the time. Suuuper great.
— Brendan McAleer (@brendan_mcaleer) March 17, 2020
Basically, the news since last week has been Through-the-Looking-Glass bad. A Quick rundown for posterity:
-
Starting mid February, the stock market is down a third from its highs. February 19th, the Dow closed at 29,386. Today, it closed 21,237. Earlier today, it was under 20,000, briefly. Trillions of dollars of market value have been erased in six weeks. Yeterday in particular, the Dow lost 12% of its value, or about 3000 points. In one day.
-
The Covid-19 virus progressed from China, to Europe, to the US. The US currently recommends that nobody gather in groups larger than 10.
-
The list of major cancelations is too long to count: SXSW, Kentucky Derby…everything is hit.
-
People in most cities are banned from going into restaurants, with some enacting “Shelter in Place” such as San Francisco, and word today is New York City was considering the same. Literal deserted streets.
-
There are nightly curfews in New Jersey, with nobody allowed out between 8pm and 6am. Right out of a movie.
-
The disease continues an exponential growth curve, with the CDC prediting that 70% of the United States will be exposed. Mortality is running a steady 3% or so. The math there is…staggering. Millions are going to die from this disease this year, and there’s no vaccine or antiviral as of this writing. My immediate family seems safe–it’s mostly those over 60 affected. But, many of my loved ones are over 60.
-
They’re considering sending every taxy paying adult a $1000 stimulus check just to keep the economy moving. Millions will be out of work for a long time.
-
There have been runs on food, household supplies (especially toilet paper)…and ammunition. Plenty of people are sitting around thinking “This may be it.” The country is not pulling together like after 9/11. There’s no sense of unity, just a disjoint bunker mentality, with us all in our homes and Social Media silos.
-
The medical/scientific community has set expectations: Even if they developed a perfect vaccine TOMORROW, it’s still about a year to get through trials. “Antivirals” are more of a sci-fi thriller plot point than a reality. Humans have NOTHING that really combats a virus, even a 100 years after their discovery.
-
Companies have sent their employees home. Amazon required Work-from-home (WFH) starting Monday (16 March) worldwide.
I’m not dealing particularly well with the last. The enormity of what’s happening keeps washing over me, with random flashes of insight about what will be affected. I WORKED most of the day on September 11th, 2001. I’ve worked through blizzards, hurricanes, and babies screaming at 3am. I’m mentally paralyzed right now.
The travel/cruise/entertainment industry is toast. The whole economy, perhaps to follow.
Mom’s shop will have to layoff everyone, maybe. Hard to say.
Thing is: This isn’t that bad. A 3% mortality rate is nothing compared to what may follow this century.
Concentrating on work seems impossible, and I’m falling further and further behind. Thinking even a few minutes about the next effects of this thing….it’s scary.
Kids are out playing. Spring is here. My family has over a year of expenses saved at current levels, perhaps 2 or 3 if we’re (very) conservative. We have no debt aside from our house. I have a great job, and Amazon’s announced its hiring 100,000 to work to meet the incredible demands.
Maybe it’ll be okay. I rather hope so.