“It seems like I should write something about coronavirus,” I thought to myself.
I’m sitting in a very empty Amazon office in Austin, Texas on a Saturday. I’m trying to make-up for a day I took off on Wednesday to shuttle Grace to a Primary Care doctor who promptly told me to take her to Dell Children’s Hospital for possible appendicitis.
I knew it wasn’t appendicitis, but meh. I needed some time away from work. There’s been a swizzle of what Amazon calls “Product,” meaning two new “Managers” came on my project. Now we have:
- SDM: Software Development Manager. Responsible for hiring, firing, and everyday operations of a two-pizza team. If I’d ever grow-up, this is what I’d be.
- TPM: Technical Project Manager. Responsible for inter-team coordination, of which there is much. Typically this is an experienced person who helps bring reality to schedules and interdependencies. Both the outgoing and incoming in question are excellent.
- PM: Program Manager. (Sometimes, there’s a ‘senior’ prepended) This person is typically an MBA and accounts for the business-face of your ____________ (insert project here).
Along comes Coronavirus
Anyway, so we had a 2-day “summit” where people flew in. Right in the middle we get an email:
“All non-essential travel is forbidden until further notice.”
Ooooookay.
So, segue: It’s Coronavirus time.
It’s been a hell of a week. The stock market is down about 10% so far. My personal net worth–on paper–is down about 4%. To be fair, any money I plan on using in the next 10 years is actually UP, and up significantly.
Economically, what seems to be occurring equates to an earthquake or a blizzard: People aren’t really thinking much beyond the current shaking. The impacts to the global supply chain, prices, companies, and jobs isn’t known, and can’t be known, because on top of these gyrations…
…people are dying. Mortality estimates vary widely, but anywhere from 2% to 8% of people who get Covid-19 seem to end up dead. All attempts at quarantine have failed, as they must do in any practical scenario. This virus was on planes from China and is on every continent except Antarctica by now. Incubation is long–up to 14 days–and that lets any modern person circle the globe and spread the contagion.
Taking a hard look at it, at 2% mortality, assuming 30% of the US population gets this thing, we’re looking at up to 2 million people dying in America alone, with disproportionate impacts to the elderly. This will top the 1918 Flu Pandemic, though mostly from simple numbers. There are many more Americans now than there were 100 years ago.
Of course, the CDC is working on a vaccine, but there’s no vaccine for the common cold, doesn’t seem likely we’ll bring one out of thin air for this.
In reality, this is Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), part 2. We had a warning when SARS brokeout in China, but this happening during Lunar New Year was like a perfect storm for a pathogen. Even the mighty Chinese government couldn’t contain it.
In reality, this isn’t that bad. This isn’t Ebola or Stephen King’s Super-Flu from “The Stand.” But, economic impacts will be massive and unpredictable. People will cease public activities, especially large events like sports, concerts, conventions. The travel industry will be devastated. People won’t want to go to stores.
That’s how it is on Leap Day, 2020: Waiting for the storm to break. Little to do but wait.