Looks like this will be a series. Welcome to Imperial America

Looks like the sham “trial” ends today. Really the question was whether it ends now or ends in acquittal after whatever witnesses were called.

They needed 66 votes to convict and remove the president. They never had them.

There's ample evidence we now elect a de-facto absolute monarch every 4 years.

And thanks to voter suppression, the electoral college and all-or-nothing electors, "we" don't even do that.

Long live the king, and all that.

— Harold Combs (@devharryc@mastodon.sdf.org) (@DevHarryC) January 31, 2020

“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and not lose voters.”

I don’t care particularly whether you have an ironic (D) or (R) next to your name, at this point neither party represents “Democracy” nor “Republic” in any form.

Well, taking a deep breath: What now? What should we expect?

What happenes next?

Several scenarios present themselves, with historical evidence to back them up.

Initially: You’ll be fine.

So, as Republics lapse into Imperial Autocracies, the overwhelming result is things actually stabilize…for awhile. Democracies and Republics whipsaw between different factions and the peasants citizens spend inordinate amounts of time with their eye off the ball. This is a pattern so predictable it’s almost boring.

Taking a few examples:

1. Roman Republic -> Empire. The 1st centry BC was unending Civil War. After Augustus consolidated power, the Pax Romana resulted, 300 years of stability and peace at the commoner level at least
2. French Revolution -> Napoleon. So, 1775 -> 1803 was a simply terrible time in France. Starvation, anarchy, terror, lawlessness. After Napoleon’s ascension, things got much better for the average Frenchman. Really, France never regained that sort of national pride after 1815.
3. Post-Communist Russia -> Putin. The Gangsters took over after 1992. Yeltsin and the legislature were ineffective. Putin straightened things out and restored Russian pre-eminence to near Soviet levels.

This is a crapshoot, admittedly. For every good example, you have not “benevolent dictatorship” but “totalitarian nightmare”: Mao, Lenin/Stalin, Pol Pot. The middle class evaporates (or is jailed/eradicated).

You’re also at the mercy of the vagaries of personality. Trump is many things, but he’s not a psychopath bent on world domination. He likes self-aggrandizement, sure, but he’s a benign Boomer sterotype in the end. He’s greedy. He’s selfish. He’s emotional, brash, capricious. I suspect at heart, he’s a coward who hides behind bluster. But, he’s an easily-manipulated fool in a geopolitical sense.

Taking historical precedent, he’s kind of like a Caligula or maybe Commodus. He causes no end of trouble for the ruling class, but for the average person? He’s immaterial. Life is good!

The Role of Corporations

One thing is different from those ancient analogues: We have Corporations now. Corporations with greater resources and power than most nations’ GDP.

That’s definitely a curveball, because people’s motivations are well mapped-out. Read Sun-Tzu, or Socrates, or Marcus Aurelius, or Machiavelli and it’s fairly predictable at scale. Corporations are “people” and seek profit.

However, corporations have to exist within a Capitalistic framework to make sense, and it’s undefined how that works in Autocratic America. Likely, Corporations will have incredibly favorable environments with stability and latitude to operate like manorial fiefdoms. Companies may take on wholesale control over city/states like greater Seattle, Silicon Valley, Detroit, with their CEOs becoming new Manorial Lords.

Pretense Will Continue

There will be the pretense that we have 3 functioning branches of government. Even when it’s gone, people will act like they’re still there.

Heck, Constantine build a Senate chamber in Constantinople 300 years after that body had any power whatsoever. It gives the ruling class something to do, much like Parliament did in England until 1648 when they beheaded Charles.

People will still swear the Oath of Office to protect the constitution. We’ll still pledge allegiance to the Flag, however many stars it may have.

The Coasting Ends Badly

So, the Pax Romana ended when Roman wasn’t “Roman” anymore. Barbarian tribes made up most of the military, and individual Legion commanders got ambitious. The military wised up and realized it could put whomever into power, leading to years with multiple Emperors, seated and deposed as the whims of the military changed.

In the end, it’s hard to see America not going this way. If/when the military becomes politicized, it’s well and truly over, and there will be inevitable conflicts, divisions, and the nation/state will cease to exist.

Takeaways

1. This has nothing to do with a call to Ukraine. America is sort of “done”…with itself. We’ve a conglomeration of “Nations” that don’t particularly get along unless we have a common enemy.

2. This would be the same if Hillary were elected. See point (1).

3. Regional alignments and differences are accelerating. Moreover, people are moving to be with their own kind, whatever that might be.

4. People aren’t engaged/don’t care. Despite what those in the echo chambers on Fox News, MSNBC, and CNN may thing, none of this is terribly important to the common American.

The more I ponder Colin Woodard’s excellent American Nations the more I see 21st century America becoming a looser confederation if it’s going to sustain itself with any sort of democratic/republican ideals. Otherwise, we’re heading for a fragile “strongmen are best” rule out of a dystopian novel.

And for the record, I hope I’m wrong.