Simply put, this regulation will be the end of the automobile industry (and possibly the automobile itself). They want 42mpg fleet AVERAGE? Given current regulations, the 2009 Honda Civic Hybrid gets 42mpg average. Nearly EVERY OTHER CAR on the road will underperform.
They want these regulations by 2016…understand, that’s ONE GENERATION in automotive terms, given the 5-year product lifecycles the carmakers deal with. The 2011 and 2012 cars are already done and in the pipeline at this point.
Sheesh, not like the automakers had much choice. . .so they now have consumers who can’t buy a car and a government that ties both hands behind their backs.
Americans won’t buy cars that run on pixie farts, go 0-60 in a couple weeks, and hold 2 people. We’re big people spread across a large continent who assume safe, comfortable transportation.
My prediction: The next shoe to drop is a $5/gallon tax on gasoline. That’s the only way you’re going to drive the meat of the bell curve to drive an imaginary-mobile like the ones this law will require. Failing that, cars produced now through 2016 will become VERY popular for a long time, much like cars made before 1973 were in the 1970’s. Cars will be WORSE for a very long time, and certain market segments won’t be available anymore. There’ll be buyers, but no company willing to lower their CAFE to service those buyers.
Any way you slice it, it’s an Extinction-Level Event for the automobile industry…